ARCHIVED PROJECTION
Projection of October 1, 2026 · release 2
Method change: a leader running in a new riding now receives the leader effect, just as it is removed when a leader leaves their riding (Orford, Trois-Rivières, Bellechasse). Correction: Christine Fréchette is no longer treated as the incumbent in Trois-Rivières. No new poll.
Polls as of October 1, 2026 · Model 0.8.1-regional · 5,000 simulations
These figures belong to this publication. They are not updated with subsequent polls.
PQ66(−1)leading29.6% · 0.0 pt
PLQ35(+1)leading23.3% · 0.0 pt
CAQ4(0)leading18.5% · 0.0 pt
PCQ15(0)leading17.3% · 0.0 pt
QS7(0)leading10.5% · 0.0 pt
| Party | Leading | Estimated vote | Mean seats | 90% interval | Most seats | Majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 66 | 29.6% | 58.9 | 37–76 | 93% | 39% |
| PLQ | 35 | 23.3% | 35.6 | 28–43 | 5% | < 1% |
| CAQ | 4 | 18.5% | 11.8 | 1–31 | 2% | < 1% |
| PCQ | 15 | 17.3% | 14.2 | 7–22 | < 1% | < 1% |
| QS | 7 | 10.5% | 6.5 | 0–12 | < 1% | < 1% |
Leading: central scenario. Means, intervals and probabilities: simulation results, conditional on the model’s assumptions.
Changes in the leading party (1)
- Orford : PQ to PLQ
All 127 ridings on this date
| Riding | Leader | PQ | PLQ | CAQ | PCQ | QS | Margin | Leader’s win probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlesbourg | PCQ | 29.0% | 14.2% | 18.4% | 29.1% | 8.8% | 0.1 pts | 48% |
| Chapleau | PLQ | 24.6% | 24.8% | 23.7% | 17.2% | 9.3% | 0.2 pts | 38% |
| Vanier-Les Rivières | PCQ | 27.9% | 14.8% | 20.6% | 28.1% | 8.0% | 0.2 pts | 45% |
| Groulx | CAQ | 29.5% | 19.7% | 29.7% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 0.2 pts | 49% |
| Maurice-Richard | PQ | 28.7% | 28.1% | 11.7% | 5.3% | 25.1% | 0.6 pts | 40% |
| La Prairie | PQ | 26.6% | 25.7% | 25.9% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 0.7 pts | 34% |
| Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques | QS | 29.3% | 26.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 30.1% | 0.8 pts | 45% |
| Vachon | CAQ | 26.3% | 26.0% | 27.1% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 0.9 pts | 40% |
| Repentigny | CAQ | 32.4% | 18.1% | 33.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 1.1 pts | 52% |
| Saint-François | PQ | 23.7% | 17.8% | 17.3% | 18.2% | 22.4% | 1.2 pts | 41% |
| Blainville | CAQ | 29.5% | 19.5% | 30.9% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 1.4 pts | 54% |
| Nicolet-Bécancour | PQ | 33.3% | 11.3% | 19.2% | 31.6% | 4.5% | 1.7 pts | 56% |
| Mégantic | PCQ | 28.7% | 12.7% | 19.2% | 30.7% | 8.6% | 2.0 pts | 58% |
| Ungava | PLQ | 27.9% | 29.9% | 10.0% | 14.4% | 17.7% | 2.1 pts | 61% |
| L'Assomption | PQ | 33.7% | 13.0% | 31.6% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 2.1 pts | 59% |
| Champlain | PQ | 29.6% | 13.2% | 24.1% | 27.3% | 5.7% | 2.3 pts | 53% |
| Abitibi-Est | PQ | 28.5% | 26.0% | 17.2% | 18.8% | 9.4% | 2.4 pts | 57% |
| Lévis | PCQ | 26.7% | 12.8% | 23.5% | 29.3% | 7.4% | 2.5 pts | 54% |
| Les Plaines | PQ | 32.1% | 15.9% | 29.2% | 13.6% | 8.9% | 2.9 pts | 62% |
| Chambly | PQ | 33.3% | 15.4% | 30.3% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 3.0 pts | 62% |
| Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | PQ | 29.1% | 12.4% | 17.7% | 14.6% | 26.0% | 3.1 pts | 61% |
| Mirabel | PQ | 32.8% | 14.9% | 29.7% | 12.9% | 9.6% | 3.1 pts | 62% |
| Brome-Missisquoi | PQ | 27.9% | 24.6% | 16.4% | 17.3% | 11.6% | 3.2 pts | 60% |
| Huntingdon | PQ | 28.5% | 25.2% | 17.1% | 20.6% | 7.3% | 3.3 pts | 57% |
| Granby | PQ | 30.5% | 13.3% | 26.8% | 18.3% | 10.9% | 3.7 pts | 65% |
| Orford | PLQ | 27.9% | 31.6% | 13.3% | 16.1% | 10.6% | 3.7 pts | 68% |
| Côte-du-Sud | PCQ | 28.4% | 13.9% | 19.8% | 32.2% | 5.5% | 3.8 pts | 67% |
| Papineau | PQ | 27.0% | 17.7% | 22.9% | 21.9% | 9.8% | 4.2 pts | 56% |
| Masson | PQ | 34.9% | 15.8% | 30.3% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 4.7 pts | 69% |
| Iberville | PQ | 32.8% | 13.4% | 27.5% | 16.5% | 9.6% | 5.3 pts | 72% |
| Chicoutimi | PQ | 35.0% | 10.5% | 29.6% | 16.0% | 9.0% | 5.4 pts | 71% |
| Montarville | PQ | 33.6% | 20.9% | 27.8% | 6.0% | 10.9% | 5.8 pts | 73% |
| Borduas | PQ | 36.8% | 12.2% | 30.8% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 6.0 pts | 72% |
| Trois-Rivières | PQ | 31.2% | 12.9% | 25.2% | 19.0% | 11.5% | 6.0 pts | 75% |
| Drummond–Bois-Francs | PQ | 32.9% | 10.9% | 21.6% | 26.9% | 7.3% | 6.0 pts | 73% |
| Sanguinet | PQ | 32.5% | 18.8% | 26.4% | 12.9% | 8.9% | 6.0 pts | 74% |
| Saint-Jérôme | PQ | 36.0% | 11.2% | 29.5% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 6.4 pts | 74% |
| Deux-Montagnes | PQ | 32.9% | 19.1% | 26.5% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 6.5 pts | 77% |
| Saint-Jean | PQ | 36.5% | 13.5% | 29.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 6.7 pts | 76% |
| Terrebonne | PQ | 35.7% | 17.9% | 29.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.8 pts | 76% |
| Beauharnois | PQ | 34.9% | 13.7% | 28.0% | 14.3% | 8.7% | 6.9 pts | 76% |
| Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | PQ | 32.9% | 11.9% | 21.1% | 25.9% | 8.2% | 7.0 pts | 79% |
| Taschereau | PQ | 38.1% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 13.7% | 30.9% | 7.2 pts | 77% |
| Jean-Lesage | QS | 24.2% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 21.4% | 31.6% | 7.4 pts | 72% |
| Maskinongé | PQ | 31.8% | 12.7% | 24.4% | 24.3% | 6.3% | 7.4 pts | 73% |
| Pointe-aux-Trembles | PQ | 35.2% | 18.4% | 27.7% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 7.5 pts | 80% |
| Verchères | PQ | 38.3% | 12.5% | 30.3% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.0 pts | 79% |
| Laurier-Dorion | QS | 20.5% | 29.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 37.0% | 8.0 pts | 73% |
| Bellefeuille | PQ | 35.8% | 11.8% | 27.6% | 13.7% | 10.6% | 8.2 pts | 80% |
| Gatineau | PLQ | 24.1% | 32.7% | 17.4% | 17.7% | 7.7% | 8.6 pts | 80% |
| Richmond | PQ | 30.2% | 13.6% | 17.7% | 21.5% | 16.9% | 8.7 pts | 83% |
| Rousseau | PQ | 35.3% | 9.9% | 26.6% | 19.4% | 8.8% | 8.7 pts | 82% |
| Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie | PQ | 33.5% | 10.9% | 21.2% | 24.4% | 9.9% | 9.0 pts | 83% |
| Sherbrooke | QS | 25.2% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 34.3% | 9.1 pts | 79% |
| Laviolette–Saint-Maurice | PQ | 35.0% | 12.7% | 20.6% | 25.4% | 6.0% | 9.6 pts | 88% |
| Arthabaska-L’Érable | PCQ | 25.9% | 11.0% | 21.4% | 35.6% | 5.9% | 9.7 pts | 83% |
| Jean-Talon | PQ | 33.6% | 23.7% | 9.4% | 15.9% | 17.0% | 10.0 pts | 89% |
| Argenteuil | PQ | 32.4% | 22.2% | 16.9% | 20.9% | 5.8% | 10.2 pts | 85% |
| Louis-Hébert | PQ | 32.2% | 18.1% | 19.7% | 21.9% | 7.9% | 10.4 pts | 87% |
| Rosemont | PQ | 37.6% | 20.5% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 27.2% | 10.4 pts | 86% |
| Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | QS | 30.1% | 15.1% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 41.0% | 10.9 pts | 80% |
| Sainte-Rose | PLQ | 24.0% | 35.0% | 21.4% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 11.0 pts | 85% |
| Montmorency | PCQ | 24.0% | 12.0% | 20.8% | 35.2% | 7.8% | 11.3 pts | 89% |
| Gouin | QS | 29.3% | 17.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 40.7% | 11.4 pts | 81% |
| Jonquière | PQ | 40.6% | 8.5% | 28.7% | 16.3% | 5.7% | 12.0 pts | 88% |
| Châteauguay | PLQ | 23.3% | 35.9% | 21.9% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 12.7 pts | 86% |
| Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | PCQ | 23.6% | 12.3% | 22.2% | 36.4% | 5.4% | 12.8 pts | 90% |
| Daniel-Johnson | PQ | 34.9% | 12.3% | 20.3% | 22.0% | 10.0% | 12.9 pts | 91% |
| Dubuc | PQ | 39.0% | 9.3% | 25.4% | 18.8% | 7.2% | 13.6 pts | 91% |
| Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques | PQ | 37.0% | 11.0% | 23.3% | 18.2% | 10.3% | 13.7 pts | 92% |
| Saint-Hyacinthe | PQ | 37.4% | 12.1% | 23.5% | 16.6% | 9.9% | 13.9 pts | 92% |
| Soulanges | PLQ | 21.6% | 35.5% | 21.3% | 14.4% | 6.1% | 13.9 pts | 87% |
| Mercier | QS | 26.2% | 21.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 40.8% | 14.5 pts | 86% |
| René-Lévesque | PQ | 43.0% | 7.7% | 28.0% | 16.8% | 4.3% | 15.0 pts | 93% |
| Taillon | PQ | 36.6% | 20.5% | 21.6% | 7.6% | 13.3% | 15.0 pts | 94% |
| Hull | PLQ | 23.4% | 38.5% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 15.2 pts | 94% |
| La Peltrie | PCQ | 23.0% | 14.1% | 17.9% | 38.8% | 5.7% | 15.8 pts | 95% |
| Richelieu | PQ | 41.6% | 11.4% | 25.3% | 14.9% | 6.6% | 16.3 pts | 94% |
| Laval-des-Rapides | PLQ | 24.6% | 41.1% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 16.4 pts | 94% |
| Chauveau | PCQ | 21.1% | 12.2% | 21.7% | 38.9% | 5.8% | 17.2 pts | 94% |
| Pierre-Laporte | PLQ | 24.1% | 41.5% | 12.6% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 17.4 pts | 96% |
| Portneuf | PCQ | 23.4% | 9.6% | 20.0% | 41.4% | 4.6% | 18.0 pts | 96% |
| Verdun | PLQ | 18.6% | 41.8% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 23.8% | 18.0 pts | 95% |
| Labelle | PQ | 40.4% | 12.9% | 21.7% | 16.3% | 8.5% | 18.6 pts | 97% |
| Roberval | PQ | 42.2% | 12.1% | 23.5% | 18.5% | 3.7% | 18.7 pts | 97% |
| Prévost | PQ | 38.7% | 13.5% | 18.9% | 18.0% | 10.3% | 19.8 pts | 98% |
| Vimont-Auteuil | PLQ | 21.1% | 41.3% | 17.8% | 12.9% | 6.6% | 20.1 pts | 96% |
| Mille-Îles | PLQ | 23.9% | 44.2% | 13.3% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 20.3 pts | 97% |
| Anjou–Louis-Riel | PLQ | 21.8% | 42.3% | 18.8% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 20.5 pts | 96% |
| Lotbinière-Frontenac | PCQ | 22.4% | 13.6% | 15.2% | 43.2% | 5.6% | 20.8 pts | 98% |
| Abitibi-Ouest | PQ | 40.5% | 12.4% | 19.2% | 16.4% | 11.3% | 21.3 pts | 98% |
| Bertrand | PQ | 40.2% | 13.5% | 18.2% | 15.8% | 11.2% | 22.0 pts | 98% |
| Duplessis | PQ | 44.5% | 10.4% | 17.4% | 22.0% | 5.3% | 22.5 pts | 99% |
| Berthier | PQ | 42.7% | 9.0% | 20.2% | 18.1% | 9.8% | 22.6 pts | 98% |
| Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | PLQ | 19.6% | 43.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 20.7% | 22.7 pts | 98% |
| Fabre | PLQ | 20.7% | 43.7% | 13.3% | 15.5% | 6.6% | 23.0 pts | 98% |
| Marie-Victorin | PQ | 40.8% | 17.5% | 17.3% | 7.7% | 15.6% | 23.4 pts | 98% |
| Lac-Saint-Jean | PQ | 48.4% | 9.6% | 19.7% | 17.9% | 4.1% | 28.6 pts | 99% |
| Vaudreuil | PLQ | 18.1% | 46.8% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 5.1% | 28.7 pts | 99% |
| Chomedey | PLQ | 16.1% | 50.1% | 7.6% | 21.2% | 4.1% | 28.9 pts | 99% |
| Mont-Royal–Outremont | PLQ | 20.5% | 51.2% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 12.4% | 30.7 pts | 100% |
| Bellechasse | PCQ | 19.6% | 9.9% | 17.2% | 50.7% | 2.5% | 31.1 pts | 100% |
| Viau | PLQ | 16.1% | 51.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 20.0% | 31.1 pts | 100% |
| Bonaventure | PQ | 50.8% | 16.0% | 16.6% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 34.2 pts | 100% |
| Camille-Laurin | PQ | 57.2% | 22.0% | 12.8% | 6.1% | 0.2% | 35.2 pts | 100% |
| Acadie | PLQ | 18.6% | 54.3% | 5.6% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 35.7 pts | 100% |
| La Pinière | PLQ | 17.1% | 53.0% | 13.4% | 10.1% | 5.4% | 35.9 pts | 100% |
| Bourassa-Sauvé | PLQ | 18.0% | 54.3% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 36.3 pts | 100% |
| Rimouski | PQ | 51.9% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 15.4% | 36.5 pts | 100% |
| Beauce-Nord | PCQ | 18.0% | 9.2% | 14.9% | 55.9% | 1.8% | 38.0 pts | 100% |
| Beauce-Sud | PCQ | 15.1% | 9.0% | 17.7% | 56.1% | 1.7% | 38.4 pts | 100% |
| Joliette | PQ | 54.2% | 9.2% | 15.3% | 14.2% | 7.0% | 38.9 pts | 100% |
| Marguerite-Bourgeoys | PLQ | 16.6% | 56.9% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 5.7% | 40.2 pts | 100% |
| Pontiac | PLQ | 16.9% | 58.0% | 2.8% | 14.9% | 5.3% | 41.1 pts | 100% |
| D'Arcy-McGee | PLQ | 9.1% | 60.8% | 3.5% | 18.0% | 3.7% | 42.9 pts | 100% |
| Marquette | PLQ | 16.8% | 60.5% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 43.7 pts | 100% |
| Gaspé | PQ | 58.3% | 13.4% | 14.2% | 9.5% | 4.6% | 44.2 pts | 100% |
| Saint-Laurent | PLQ | 14.3% | 59.2% | 5.2% | 12.9% | 5.1% | 44.9 pts | 100% |
| Westmount–Saint-Louis | PLQ | 13.4% | 61.5% | 4.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 48.1 pts | 100% |
| Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | PLQ | 12.1% | 61.2% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 49.1 pts | 100% |
| Nelligan | PLQ | 11.7% | 64.5% | 5.4% | 13.3% | 1.6% | 51.2 pts | 100% |
| LaFontaine | PLQ | 12.9% | 64.7% | 6.0% | 11.8% | 4.2% | 51.8 pts | 100% |
| Robert-Baldwin | PLQ | 9.3% | 67.6% | 4.1% | 13.2% | 1.4% | 54.3 pts | 100% |
| Jeanne-Mance–Viger | PLQ | 11.5% | 66.1% | 5.4% | 10.3% | 5.3% | 54.5 pts | 100% |
| Îles-de-la-Madeleine | PQ | 69.3% | 13.0% | 11.0% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 56.3 pts | 100% |
| Jacques-Cartier | PLQ | 9.5% | 71.5% | 4.0% | 9.3% | 1.3% | 62.0 pts | 100% |
| Matane-Matapédia-Mitis | PQ | 82.4% | 6.3% | 0.1% | 10.0% | 1.1% | 72.4 pts | 100% |
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Polls used in this publication
| Firm | Fieldwork | Sample | PQ | PLQ | CAQ | PCQ | QS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léger | 2026-09-25–27 | 1,001 | 30% | 26% | 16% | 18% | 9% |
| Pallas Data | 2026-09-25–26 | 1,192 | 30% | 23% | 19% | 17% | 10% |
| Synopsis Recherche | 2026-09-24–27 | 1,000 | 30% | 22% | 17% | 17% | 13% |
| Nanos Research | 2026-09-12–14 | 537 | 27.9% | 23.7% | 21.6% | 16.4% | 8.7% |
| Segma Recherche | 2026-09-08–17 | 5,572 | 29% | 19% | 22% | 18% | 12% |
| Mainstreet Research | 2026-09-11–13 | 2,145 | 24.4% | 21.5% | 28.2% | 16.6% | 7.7% |
| Research Co. | 2026-09-10–13 | 705 | 28% | 22% | 23% | 16% | 10% |