QUEBEC · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
All 127 ridings
One page per riding, with candidates, estimated support, probabilities and the 2022 result. Projection of October 1, 2026.
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
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| Riding | Leading | Margin | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abitibi-Est | PQ | 2.3 pts | 56% |
| Abitibi-Ouest | PQ | 21.2 pts | 98% |
| Acadie | PLQ | 35.7 pts | > 99% |
| Anjou–Louis-Riel | PLQ | 20.5 pts | 96% |
| Argenteuil | PQ | 10.1 pts | 85% |
| Arthabaska-L’Érable | PCQ | 9.8 pts | 84% |
| Beauce-Nord | PCQ | 38.1 pts | > 99% |
| Beauce-Sud | PCQ | 38.4 pts | > 99% |
| Beauharnois | PQ | 6.8 pts | 76% |
| Bellechasse | PCQ | 24.4 pts | 99% |
| Bellefeuille | PQ | 8.2 pts | 80% |
| Berthier | PQ | 22.5 pts | 98% |
| Bertrand | PQ | 21.9 pts | 98% |
| Blainville | CAQ | 1.4 pts | 54% |
| Bonaventure | PQ | 34.1 pts | > 99% |
| Borduas | PQ | 6.0 pts | 72% |
| Bourassa-Sauvé | PLQ | 36.3 pts | > 99% |
| Brome-Missisquoi | PQ | 3.1 pts | 59% |
| Camille-Laurin | PQ | 35.2 pts | > 99% |
| Chambly | PQ | 3.0 pts | 62% |
| Champlain | PQ | 2.2 pts | 52% |
| Chapleau | PLQ | 0.4 pts | 38% |
| Charlesbourg | PCQ | 0.3 pts | 49% |
| Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | PQ | 6.9 pts | 79% |
| Châteauguay | PLQ | 12.7 pts | 86% |
| Chauveau | PCQ | 17.4 pts | 95% |
| Chicoutimi | PQ | 5.3 pts | 71% |
| Chomedey | PLQ | 28.9 pts | 99% |
| Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | PCQ | 13.0 pts | 90% |
| Côte-du-Sud | PCQ | 3.9 pts | 67% |
| D'Arcy-McGee | PLQ | 42.9 pts | > 99% |
| Daniel-Johnson | PQ | 12.7 pts | 91% |
| Deux-Montagnes | PQ | 6.5 pts | 77% |
| Drummond–Bois-Francs | PQ | 5.9 pts | 73% |
| Dubuc | PQ | 13.5 pts | 91% |
| Duplessis | PQ | 22.4 pts | 99% |
| Fabre | PLQ | 23.0 pts | 98% |
| Gaspé | PQ | 44.1 pts | > 99% |
| Gatineau | PLQ | 8.8 pts | 80% |
| Gouin | QS | 11.4 pts | 81% |
| Granby | PQ | 3.6 pts | 65% |
| Groulx | CAQ | 0.2 pts | 49% |
| Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | QS | 10.9 pts | 80% |
| Hull | PLQ | 15.4 pts | 94% |
| Huntingdon | PQ | 3.1 pts | 56% |
| Iberville | PQ | 5.2 pts | 72% |
| Îles-de-la-Madeleine | PQ | 56.1 pts | > 99% |
| Jacques-Cartier | PLQ | 62.0 pts | > 99% |
| Jean-Lesage | QS | 7.4 pts | 72% |
| Jean-Talon | PQ | 10.0 pts | 89% |
| Jeanne-Mance–Viger | PLQ | 54.5 pts | > 99% |
| Joliette | PQ | 38.8 pts | > 99% |
| Jonquière | PQ | 11.9 pts | 87% |
| L'Assomption | PQ | 2.1 pts | 59% |
| La Peltrie | PCQ | 16.0 pts | 95% |
| La Pinière | PLQ | 35.9 pts | > 99% |
| La Prairie | PQ | 0.7 pts | 34% |
| Labelle | PQ | 18.5 pts | 97% |
| Lac-Saint-Jean | PQ | 28.5 pts | 99% |
| LaFontaine | PLQ | 51.8 pts | > 99% |
| Laurier-Dorion | QS | 8.0 pts | 73% |
| Laval-des-Rapides | PLQ | 16.4 pts | 94% |
| Laviolette–Saint-Maurice | PQ | 9.5 pts | 88% |
| Les Plaines | PQ | 3.0 pts | 62% |
| Lévis | PCQ | 2.7 pts | 55% |
| Lotbinière-Frontenac | PCQ | 21.0 pts | 98% |
| Louis-Hébert | PQ | 10.2 pts | 87% |
| Marguerite-Bourgeoys | PLQ | 40.2 pts | > 99% |
| Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie | PQ | 8.9 pts | 83% |
| Marie-Victorin | PQ | 23.4 pts | 98% |
| Marquette | PLQ | 43.7 pts | > 99% |
| Maskinongé | PQ | 7.3 pts | 72% |
| Masson | PQ | 4.7 pts | 69% |
| Matane-Matapédia-Mitis | PQ | 72.3 pts | > 99% |
| Maurice-Richard | PQ | 0.6 pts | 40% |
| Mégantic | PCQ | 2.1 pts | 59% |
| Mercier | QS | 14.5 pts | 86% |
| Mille-Îles | PLQ | 20.3 pts | 97% |
| Mirabel | PQ | 3.1 pts | 62% |
| Mont-Royal–Outremont | PLQ | 30.7 pts | > 99% |
| Montarville | PQ | 5.8 pts | 73% |
| Montmorency | PCQ | 11.4 pts | 89% |
| Nelligan | PLQ | 51.2 pts | > 99% |
| Nicolet-Bécancour | PQ | 1.5 pts | 56% |
| Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | PLQ | 49.1 pts | > 99% |
| Orford | PQ | 2.9 pts | 60% |
| Papineau | PQ | 4.1 pts | 55% |
| Pierre-Laporte | PLQ | 17.4 pts | 96% |
| Pointe-aux-Trembles | PQ | 7.5 pts | 80% |
| Pontiac | PLQ | 41.3 pts | > 99% |
| Portneuf | PCQ | 18.2 pts | 96% |
| Prévost | PQ | 19.7 pts | 98% |
| René-Lévesque | PQ | 14.9 pts | 92% |
| Repentigny | CAQ | 1.1 pts | 52% |
| Richelieu | PQ | 16.2 pts | 94% |
| Richmond | PQ | 8.5 pts | 83% |
| Rimouski | PQ | 36.4 pts | > 99% |
| Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques | PQ | 13.6 pts | 92% |
| Robert-Baldwin | PLQ | 54.3 pts | > 99% |
| Roberval | PQ | 18.6 pts | 97% |
| Rosemont | PQ | 10.4 pts | 86% |
| Rousseau | PQ | 8.6 pts | 82% |
| Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | PQ | 3.1 pts | 61% |
| Saint-François | PQ | 1.2 pts | 40% |
| Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | PLQ | 22.7 pts | 98% |
| Saint-Hyacinthe | PQ | 13.8 pts | 92% |
| Saint-Jean | PQ | 6.7 pts | 76% |
| Saint-Jérôme | PQ | 6.4 pts | 74% |
| Saint-Laurent | PLQ | 44.9 pts | > 99% |
| Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques | QS | 0.8 pts | 45% |
| Sainte-Rose | PLQ | 11.0 pts | 85% |
| Sanguinet | PQ | 6.0 pts | 74% |
| Sherbrooke | QS | 9.1 pts | 79% |
| Soulanges | PLQ | 14.0 pts | 87% |
| Taillon | PQ | 15.0 pts | 94% |
| Taschereau | PQ | 7.1 pts | 77% |
| Terrebonne | PQ | 6.8 pts | 76% |
| Trois-Rivières | PQ | 9.4 pts | 85% |
| Ungava | PLQ | 2.3 pts | 62% |
| Vachon | CAQ | 0.9 pts | 40% |
| Vanier-Les Rivières | PCQ | 0.4 pts | 46% |
| Vaudreuil | PLQ | 28.7 pts | 99% |
| Verchères | PQ | 8.0 pts | 79% |
| Verdun | PLQ | 18.0 pts | 95% |
| Viau | PLQ | 31.1 pts | > 99% |
| Vimont-Auteuil | PLQ | 20.1 pts | 96% |
| Westmount–Saint-Louis | PLQ | 48.1 pts | > 99% |