RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Joliette
127QC projection for Joliette as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 54.1% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (15.3%) and the PCQ (14.3%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin38.8 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Véronique Venne
54.1%Win: > 99%CAQ Clodine Desrochers
15.3%Win: < 1%PCQ Rémi Lafrenière
14.3%Win: < 1%PLQ Sana Arfaoui
9.3%Win: < 1%QS Flavie Trudel
7.0%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 31.2 | 54.1 | +22.9 |
| CAQ | 45.6 | 15.3 | −30.3 |
| PCQ | 8.8 | 14.3 | +5.4 |
| PLQ | 3.0 | 9.3 | +6.3 |
| QS | 11.4 | 7.0 | −4.4 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- BerthierPQ 22.5-pt margin
- L'AssomptionPQ 2.1-pt margin
- RousseauPQ 8.6-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.