PQ
66
ridings leadingAverage: 57.9 · 90% CI: 36–76
29.6% of the vote
QUEBEC · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
The race for 127 seats.
Calculated October 1, 2026
Polls as of October 1
Experimental projection. An estimate of the current race, not a certainty about the election result.
Seat projection
Majority: 64 seatsPLQ
34
ridings leadingAverage: 35.1 · 90% CI: 28–43
23.3% of the vote
CAQ
5
ridings leadingAverage: 13.0 · 90% CI: 2–32
18.5% of the vote
PCQ
15
ridings leadingAverage: 14.5 · 90% CI: 8–23
17.3% of the vote
QS
7
ridings leadingAverage: 6.5 · 90% CI: 0–12
10.5% of the vote
PQ wins the most seats in the simulations93%
PQ reaches 64 seats or more in the simulations35%
The large numbers are the central scenario: the number of ridings where each party leads. The averages and intervals from 5,000 simulations appear under each number. How to read these numbers.
Details: central scenario and simulations
The central scenario counts the ridings where each party leads the estimate. The simulations vary provincial support, with polling error comparable to the 2018 and 2022 elections, as well as local support. A party narrowly ahead in many races therefore leads in more ridings than it wins on average.
| Party | Leading (map) | Average seats | 90% interval | Most seats | Majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 66 | 57.9 | 36–76 | 93% | 35% |
| PLQ | 34 | 35.1 | 28–43 | 5% | < 1% |
| CAQ | 5 | 13.0 | 2–32 | 2% | < 1% |
| PCQ | 15 | 14.5 | 8–23 | < 1% | < 1% |
| QS | 7 | 6.5 | 0–12 | < 1% | < 1% |
Experimental probabilities, conditional on the model’s assumptions.
THE CENTRAL SCENARIO
Central scenario: PQ leads in 66 ridings.
In the model’s simulations, the PQ alone wins the most seats in 93% of cases and reaches 64 seats or more in 35% of cases. Its simulated average is 57.9 seats, with a 90% interval from 36 to 76.
HOW TO READ THESE NUMBERS
Races
that can still flip.
The projection and the map show which party leads the estimated support. A narrow lead remains fragile: polls and voters’ choices can still change.
QUEBEC, RIDING BY RIDING
The race map
Choose a riding to see the candidates and estimated support.
Drag to move the map. Use + and − to zoom. The colour shows the leader, not a guaranteed win.
2026 electoral map · Élections Québec.
THE VOTE NEAR YOU
The ridings
The table starts with the closest races. Open a riding to see the candidates.
| Riding | Leader | PQ | PLQ | CAQ | PCQ | QS | Margin¹ | Probability² |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 33.0% | 12.8% | 32.9% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 0.1 pts | 51% | |
| PCQ | 28.9% | 14.2% | 18.3% | 29.2% | 8.8% | 0.3 pts | 49% | |
| PCQ | 27.9% | 14.8% | 20.5% | 28.2% | 8.0% | 0.3 pts | 46% | |
| PLQ | 24.5% | 25.2% | 23.5% | 17.2% | 9.3% | 0.7 pts | 41% | |
| QS | 29.8% | 27.0% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 30.5% | 0.7 pts | 45% | |
| PQ | 28.9% | 28.0% | 11.0% | 5.9% | 25.2% | 0.9 pts | 41% | |
| PQ | 33.0% | 11.3% | 19.0% | 32.2% | 4.5% | 0.9 pts | 53% | |
| PQ | 23.4% | 17.9% | 17.5% | 18.1% | 22.5% | 1.0 pts | 39% | |
| PQ | 32.7% | 15.1% | 31.5% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 1.1 pts | 56% | |
| PQ | 31.8% | 15.7% | 30.5% | 13.1% | 8.7% | 1.3 pts | 56% | |
| PQ | 32.4% | 14.7% | 31.0% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 1.4 pts | 55% | |
| PQ | 29.5% | 13.3% | 23.6% | 27.7% | 5.7% | 1.7 pts | 51% | |
| CAQ | 29.0% | 19.3% | 30.9% | 9.6% | 10.9% | 1.9 pts | 55% | |
| PQ | 28.3% | 26.2% | 17.4% | 18.8% | 9.3% | 2.1 pts | 55% | |
| CAQ | 26.0% | 25.5% | 28.1% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 2.1 pts | 46% | |
| PLQ | 27.5% | 30.0% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 17.6% | 2.5 pts | 63% | |
| PCQ | 26.8% | 12.8% | 23.3% | 29.4% | 7.4% | 2.6 pts | 55% | |
| PQ | 29.6% | 26.8% | 14.8% | 17.0% | 11.3% | 2.7 pts | 58% | |
| PQ | 34.3% | 15.5% | 31.5% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 2.8 pts | 62% | |
| PCQ | 28.4% | 12.7% | 19.1% | 31.2% | 8.5% | 2.8 pts | 62% | |
| PQ | 27.7% | 24.8% | 16.7% | 17.1% | 11.5% | 2.9 pts | 58% | |
| PQ | 28.2% | 25.3% | 17.3% | 20.6% | 7.2% | 2.9 pts | 55% | |
| PQ | 29.0% | 12.5% | 17.9% | 14.3% | 26.1% | 2.9 pts | 60% | |
| CAQ | 29.0% | 19.1% | 32.2% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 3.2 pts | 62% | |
| CAQ | 31.7% | 17.7% | 34.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 3.3 pts | 60% | |
| PQ | 33.0% | 20.4% | 28.7% | 6.4% | 10.7% | 4.3 pts | 68% | |
| PQ | 30.6% | 13.5% | 26.3% | 18.3% | 11.0% | 4.3 pts | 68% | |
| PQ | 26.9% | 17.9% | 22.6% | 22.1% | 9.8% | 4.3 pts | 55% | |
| PQ | 36.2% | 12.1% | 31.8% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 4.4 pts | 67% | |
| PQ | 35.4% | 11.1% | 30.8% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 4.6 pts | 69% | |
| PCQ | 28.1% | 13.9% | 19.6% | 32.8% | 5.5% | 4.7 pts | 71% | |
| PQ | 35.8% | 13.3% | 30.9% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 4.9 pts | 70% | |
| PQ | 32.2% | 18.7% | 27.3% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 4.9 pts | 71% | |
| PQ | 35.1% | 17.6% | 30.1% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 5.0 pts | 70% | |
| PQ | 32.8% | 13.4% | 27.6% | 16.3% | 9.6% | 5.1 pts | 72% | |
| PQ | 32.6% | 18.9% | 27.4% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 5.2 pts | 73% | |
| PQ | 32.8% | 10.9% | 21.3% | 27.3% | 7.2% | 5.5 pts | 72% | |
| PQ | 34.6% | 18.1% | 28.7% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 5.9 pts | 74% | |
| PQ | 37.5% | 12.3% | 31.5% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 6.0 pts | 73% | |
| PQ | 35.4% | 10.7% | 29.0% | 15.9% | 9.0% | 6.4 pts | 75% | |
| PQ | 32.8% | 11.9% | 20.9% | 26.1% | 8.2% | 6.7 pts | 78% | |
| PQ | 35.4% | 11.7% | 28.7% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 6.7 pts | 77% | |
| PQ | 34.9% | 13.8% | 28.1% | 14.1% | 8.7% | 6.8 pts | 77% | |
| PQ | 38.0% | 13.1% | 4.4% | 13.2% | 31.0% | 7.0 pts | 76% | |
| PQ | 31.8% | 12.8% | 24.0% | 24.7% | 6.3% | 7.1 pts | 73% | |
| QS | 24.3% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 21.1% | 31.5% | 7.3 pts | 72% | |
| CAQ | 24.7% | 24.0% | 32.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.1 pts | 70% | |
| PQ | 35.3% | 9.9% | 27.1% | 19.0% | 8.8% | 8.2 pts | 81% | |
| QS | 21.0% | 29.1% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 37.4% | 8.3 pts | 73% | |
| PQ | 30.0% | 13.6% | 17.8% | 21.6% | 16.8% | 8.4 pts | 83% | |
| PQ | 33.4% | 10.9% | 20.9% | 24.7% | 9.9% | 8.7 pts | 83% | |
| PLQ | 23.9% | 33.0% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 7.6% | 9.1 pts | 81% | |
| PQ | 34.9% | 12.7% | 20.5% | 25.6% | 5.9% | 9.3 pts | 88% | |
| QS | 24.9% | 14.7% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 34.2% | 9.3 pts | 79% | |
| PQ | 33.6% | 23.8% | 9.7% | 15.5% | 17.0% | 9.7 pts | 89% | |
| PQ | 32.3% | 13.5% | 22.5% | 19.6% | 11.9% | 9.8 pts | 86% | |
| PQ | 32.3% | 22.3% | 17.1% | 20.8% | 5.7% | 10.0 pts | 84% | |
| PQ | 37.9% | 20.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 27.4% | 10.5 pts | 86% | |
| PLQ | 24.1% | 34.6% | 21.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 10.5 pts | 83% | |
| PQ | 32.3% | 18.2% | 19.7% | 21.7% | 7.9% | 10.5 pts | 88% | |
| PCQ | 25.6% | 11.0% | 21.1% | 36.3% | 5.8% | 10.8 pts | 86% | |
| QS | 30.4% | 15.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 41.3% | 11.0 pts | 80% | |
| QS | 29.7% | 17.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 41.1% | 11.4 pts | 81% | |
| PCQ | 24.0% | 11.9% | 20.6% | 35.5% | 7.8% | 11.6 pts | 89% | |
| PLQ | 23.3% | 35.5% | 22.4% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 12.2 pts | 85% | |
| PQ | 34.8% | 12.4% | 20.1% | 22.2% | 10.0% | 12.7 pts | 91% | |
| PQ | 41.2% | 8.6% | 28.1% | 16.3% | 5.7% | 13.1 pts | 90% | |
| PCQ | 23.6% | 12.3% | 21.9% | 36.8% | 5.4% | 13.2 pts | 91% | |
| PLQ | 21.6% | 35.3% | 21.8% | 14.1% | 6.1% | 13.5 pts | 86% | |
| PQ | 37.2% | 11.1% | 23.0% | 18.1% | 10.3% | 14.2 pts | 93% | |
| PQ | 36.3% | 20.3% | 22.0% | 7.8% | 13.2% | 14.3 pts | 93% | |
| PQ | 39.3% | 9.4% | 25.0% | 18.8% | 7.3% | 14.3 pts | 92% | |
| PQ | 37.7% | 12.2% | 23.2% | 16.5% | 9.9% | 14.4 pts | 93% | |
| QS | 26.6% | 22.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 41.2% | 14.6 pts | 86% | |
| PLQ | 23.0% | 38.8% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 15.8 pts | 94% | |
| PLQ | 24.9% | 41.0% | 13.4% | 9.7% | 10.6% | 16.1 pts | 94% | |
| PQ | 43.6% | 7.8% | 27.4% | 16.8% | 4.3% | 16.1 pts | 94% | |
| PCQ | 22.9% | 14.0% | 17.8% | 39.2% | 5.7% | 16.2 pts | 95% | |
| PLQ | 24.4% | 41.5% | 12.0% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 17.0 pts | 96% | |
| PQ | 42.0% | 11.6% | 24.9% | 14.7% | 6.6% | 17.1 pts | 95% | |
| PLQ | 19.1% | 41.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 24.0% | 17.9 pts | 95% | |
| PCQ | 21.1% | 12.1% | 21.4% | 39.3% | 5.7% | 17.9 pts | 95% | |
| PQ | 40.6% | 13.0% | 21.5% | 16.2% | 8.5% | 19.0 pts | 97% | |
| PCQ | 23.0% | 9.5% | 19.7% | 42.3% | 4.5% | 19.2 pts | 97% | |
| PQ | 42.4% | 12.2% | 23.1% | 18.5% | 3.6% | 19.3 pts | 97% | |
| PLQ | 21.4% | 41.1% | 17.9% | 12.6% | 6.7% | 19.7 pts | 96% | |
| PQ | 38.7% | 13.6% | 18.9% | 17.9% | 10.3% | 19.8 pts | 98% | |
| PLQ | 21.9% | 41.8% | 19.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 19.9 pts | 96% | |
| PLQ | 24.2% | 44.2% | 12.8% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 20.0 pts | 97% | |
| PQ | 40.6% | 12.5% | 19.2% | 16.2% | 11.3% | 21.4 pts | 98% | |
| PQ | 40.3% | 13.6% | 18.3% | 15.5% | 11.1% | 22.0 pts | 98% | |
| PCQ | 21.8% | 13.4% | 15.3% | 43.9% | 5.5% | 22.1 pts | 99% | |
| PQ | 44.5% | 10.4% | 17.5% | 22.1% | 5.2% | 22.4 pts | 99% | |
| PLQ | 20.1% | 43.6% | 5.2% | 7.9% | 21.0% | 22.7 pts | 98% | |
| PLQ | 21.1% | 43.9% | 12.9% | 15.1% | 6.6% | 22.8 pts | 98% | |
| PQ | 42.9% | 9.1% | 20.1% | 18.0% | 9.8% | 22.8 pts | 98% | |
| PQ | 40.7% | 17.4% | 17.3% | 7.9% | 15.6% | 23.3 pts | 98% | |
| PCQ | 21.1% | 10.7% | 18.8% | 46.6% | 2.7% | 25.5 pts | 99% | |
| PLQ | 18.5% | 46.7% | 15.1% | 12.1% | 5.1% | 28.2 pts | 99% | |
| PQ | 48.6% | 9.6% | 19.7% | 17.8% | 4.1% | 28.9 pts | 99% | |
| PLQ | 16.8% | 51.1% | 6.5% | 20.6% | 4.2% | 30.5 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 21.0% | 51.6% | 3.9% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 30.6 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 16.6% | 51.3% | 4.0% | 6.7% | 20.3% | 31.0 pts | 100% | |
| PQ | 51.1% | 16.1% | 16.9% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 34.2 pts | 100% | |
| PQ | 57.2% | 22.1% | 12.3% | 6.6% | 0.2% | 35.1 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 17.5% | 52.9% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 5.4% | 35.4 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 19.2% | 54.8% | 4.1% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 35.6 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 18.5% | 54.5% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 36.0 pts | 100% | |
| PQ | 52.1% | 9.4% | 13.9% | 9.0% | 15.4% | 36.8 pts | 100% | |
| PQ | 54.4% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 13.8% | 6.9% | 38.8 pts | 100% | |
| PCQ | 17.3% | 9.0% | 15.0% | 56.9% | 1.7% | 39.6 pts | 100% | |
| PCQ | 14.4% | 8.9% | 17.5% | 57.3% | 1.7% | 39.8 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 17.2% | 57.3% | 6.3% | 11.3% | 5.8% | 40.1 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 16.3% | 57.8% | 4.3% | 14.4% | 5.2% | 41.5 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 17.4% | 60.9% | 5.1% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 43.6 pts | 100% | |
| PQ | 58.6% | 13.4% | 14.6% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 44.0 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 9.8% | 62.1% | 1.7% | 17.6% | 3.8% | 44.4 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 15.0% | 60.0% | 3.6% | 12.9% | 5.2% | 45.0 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 13.9% | 62.0% | 2.6% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 48.1 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 12.7% | 61.7% | 2.0% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 49.0 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 13.5% | 65.4% | 4.6% | 11.9% | 4.2% | 51.9 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 12.3% | 65.3% | 3.9% | 13.3% | 1.6% | 52.1 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 12.1% | 66.7% | 3.8% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 54.6 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 9.9% | 68.6% | 2.4% | 13.2% | 1.4% | 55.3 pts | 100% | |
| PQ | 69.7% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 56.6 pts | 100% | |
| PLQ | 10.1% | 72.3% | 2.2% | 9.6% | 1.3% | 62.2 pts | 100% | |
| PQ | 81.6% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 9.2% | 1.0% | 72.4 pts | 100% |
No riding matches your search.
Estimated vote in %. ¹ Gap between the top two, in points. ² Experimental probability that the leader wins. Tap a riding to see the candidates and each party’s probability.
THE MODEL PUT TO THE TEST
What the model would have said in 2014, 2018 and 2022
The same method as today, applied with the last polls published before each election. The table compares the number of seats the model predicted for each party with the number of seats actually won.
105 / 125
ridings called correctly in 2014
106 / 127
ridings called correctly in 2018
116 / 125
ridings called correctly in 2022
| Party | 2014 seats predicted | 2014 seats won | 2018 seats predicted | 2018 seats won | 2022 seats predicted | 2022 seats won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 39 | 30 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 |
| PLQ | 73 | 70 | 44 | 31 | 22 | 21 |
| CAQ | 10 | 22 | 63 | 76 | 86 | 90 |
| PCQ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| QS | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
Ridings called correctly: ridings where the party predicted to lead is the one that actually won, checked one by one. In all three elections, the model underestimated the CAQ’s seat count. In 2018, the polls underestimated the CAQ by about 5 points; with the actual provincial results, the model would have called 109 of 127 ridings correctly. 2014 and 2022 use the map of the time (125 ridings); 2018 is recalculated on the current 127-riding map (official result on 125 ridings: CAQ 74, PLQ 31, PQ 10, QS 10). No regional polls are available for 2014 and 2018. For 2014, the target is the average of the last polls from five firms. Some model settings, including the incumbent and party-leader effects, were estimated from these elections: this table shows how the model behaves; it does not guarantee its accuracy in 2026.
VOTING INTENTIONS
The polls used
The figures used in the October 1 projection, in percent.
| Firm | Fieldwork dates | Sample | PQ | PLQ | CAQ | PCQ | QS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Léger | 2026-09-25–27 | 1,001 | 30% | 26% | 16% | 18% | 9% |
| Pallas Data | 2026-09-25–26 | 1,192 | 30% | 23% | 19% | 17% | 10% |
| Synopsis Recherche | 2026-09-24–27 | 1,000 | 30% | 22% | 17% | 17% | 13% |
| Nanos Research | 2026-09-12–14 | 537 | 27.9% | 23.7% | 21.6% | 16.4% | 8.7% |
| Segma Recherche | 2026-09-08–17 | 5,572 | 29% | 19% | 22% | 18% | 12% |
| Mainstreet Research | 2026-09-11–13 | 2,145 | 24.4% | 21.5% | 28.2% | 16.6% | 7.7% |
| Research Co. | 2026-09-10–13 | 705 | 28% | 22% | 23% | 16% | 10% |
Fieldwork dates are shown for each poll. Sample size refers to all respondents; voting intentions exclude undecided voters. Published figures retain their original precision and are normalized to 100% for the calculation.