RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
VachonClose race
127QC projection for Vachon as of October 1, 2026: the CAQ leads with 27.1% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (26.3%) and the PLQ (26.0%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the CAQ wins 40% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.
Candidates and estimated support
The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAQ | 44.9 | 27.1 | −17.8 |
| PQ | 13.4 | 26.3 | +12.9 |
| PLQ | 16.1 | 26.0 | +9.9 |
| QS | 15.0 | 10.0 | −5.1 |
| PCQ | 8.9 | 9.8 | +0.9 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- ChamblyPQ 3.0-pt margin
- MontarvillePQ 5.8-pt margin
- Pierre-LaportePLQ 17.4-pt margin
- TaillonPQ 15.0-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.