PQ
Parti Québécois
66 ridings leading
Simulated seats : 58.9 · 90% : 37–76
Estimated vote : 29.6% · 2022 : 14.6%
Most seats : 93% · majority : 39%
View the party pageQUEBEC · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
The parties
The 127QC projection of October 1, 2026 for each of the five main parties, compared with the 2022 result.
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
PLQ
Quebec Liberal Party
35 ridings leading
Simulated seats : 35.6 · 90% : 28–43
Estimated vote : 23.3% · 2022 : 14.4%
Most seats : 5% · majority : < 1%
View the party pagePCQ
Conservative Party of Quebec
15 ridings leading
Simulated seats : 14.2 · 90% : 7–22
Estimated vote : 17.3% · 2022 : 12.9%
Most seats : < 1% · majority : < 1%
View the party pageQS
Québec solidaire
7 ridings leading
Simulated seats : 6.5 · 90% : 0–12
Estimated vote : 10.5% · 2022 : 15.4%
Most seats : < 1% · majority : < 1%
View the party pageCAQ
Coalition Avenir Québec
4 ridings leading
Simulated seats : 11.8 · 90% : 1–31
Estimated vote : 18.5% · 2022 : 41.0%
Most seats : 2% · majority : < 1%
View the party pageLarge figures count the ridings where each party leads the estimate. Simulated seats and probabilities come from the model’s 5,000 simulations. 127QC is an independent project, with no ties to any political party.