Charlesbourg
Margin : 0.1 pt · PCQ leading
PCQ29.1%
Win probability : 48%
PQ29.0%
Win probability : 47%
PARTY · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Parti Québécois PQ
According to the 127QC projection of October 1, 2026, the PQ leads in 66 ridings, with 29.6% of the estimated vote (14.6% in 2022). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 58.9 seats on average (90% interval: 37 to 76).
Leading66ridings of 127
Simulated seats58.9average · 90%: 37–76
Most seats93%of simulations
Majority39%64 seats or more
Estimated vote29.6%+15.0 pts since 2022
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Party’s official website: pq.org
The trend
The 2022 result, then each poll used in the projection, from oldest to newest (published figures), then the 127QC projection. Vote for the PQ.
| Source | Date | Sample | PQ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 election (official result)October 3, 2022 | October 3, 2022 | — | 14.6% |
| Mainstreet ResearchSeptember 11–13 | September 11–13 | 2,145 | 24.4% |
| Research Co.September 10–13 | September 10–13 | 705 | 28% |
| Nanos ResearchSeptember 12–14 | September 12–14 | 537 | 27.9% |
| Segma RechercheSeptember 8–17 | September 8–17 | 5,572 | 29% |
| Pallas DataSeptember 25–26 | September 25–26 | 1,192 | 30% |
| LégerSeptember 25–27 | September 25–27 | 1,001 | 30% |
| Synopsis RechercheSeptember 24–27 | September 24–27 | 1,000 | 30% |
| 127QC projectionOctober 1, 2026 | October 1, 2026 | 5,000 simulations | 29.6% |
Our successive projections
Each publication is kept as is in the projection history.
| Publication | Leading | Mean seats | Estimated vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 1, 2026 · release 2 | 66 | 58.9 | 29.6% |
| October 1, 2026 | 67 | 59.2 | 29.6% |
Ridings where the PQ leads 66
- Abitibi-Estlead 2.4 pt · 57%
- Abitibi-Ouestlead 21.3 pt · 98%
- Argenteuillead 10.2 pt · 85%
- Beauharnoislead 6.9 pt · 76%
- Bellefeuillelead 8.2 pt · 80%
- Berthierlead 22.6 pt · 98%
- Bertrandlead 22.0 pt · 98%
- Bonaventurelead 34.2 pt · > 99%
- Borduaslead 6.0 pt · 72%
- Brome-Missisquoilead 3.2 pt · 60%
- Camille-Laurinlead 35.2 pt · > 99%
- Chamblylead 3.0 pt · 62%
- Champlainlead 2.3 pt · 53%
- Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beauprélead 7.0 pt · 79%
- Chicoutimilead 5.4 pt · 71%
- Daniel-Johnsonlead 12.9 pt · 91%
- Deux-Montagneslead 6.5 pt · 77%
- Drummond–Bois-Francslead 6.0 pt · 73%
- Dubuclead 13.6 pt · 91%
- Duplessislead 22.5 pt · 99%
- Gaspélead 44.2 pt · > 99%
- Granbylead 3.7 pt · 65%
- Huntingdonlead 3.3 pt · 57%
- Ibervillelead 5.3 pt · 72%
- Îles-de-la-Madeleinelead 56.3 pt · > 99%
- Jean-Talonlead 10.0 pt · 89%
- Joliettelead 38.9 pt · > 99%
- Jonquièrelead 12.0 pt · 88%
- L'Assomptionlead 2.1 pt · 59%
- La Prairielead 0.7 pt · 34%
- Labellelead 18.6 pt · 97%
- Lac-Saint-Jeanlead 28.6 pt · 99%
- Laviolette–Saint-Mauricelead 9.6 pt · 88%
- Les Plaineslead 2.9 pt · 62%
- Louis-Hébertlead 10.4 pt · 87%
- Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoielead 9.0 pt · 83%
- Marie-Victorinlead 23.4 pt · 98%
- Maskinongélead 7.4 pt · 73%
- Massonlead 4.7 pt · 69%
- Matane-Matapédia-Mitislead 72.4 pt · > 99%
- Maurice-Richardlead 0.6 pt · 40%
- Mirabellead 3.1 pt · 62%
- Montarvillelead 5.8 pt · 73%
- Nicolet-Bécancourlead 1.7 pt · 56%
- Papineaulead 4.2 pt · 56%
- Pointe-aux-Trembleslead 7.5 pt · 80%
- Prévostlead 19.8 pt · 98%
- René-Lévesquelead 15.0 pt · 93%
- Richelieulead 16.3 pt · 94%
- Richmondlead 8.7 pt · 83%
- Rimouskilead 36.5 pt · > 99%
- Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basqueslead 13.7 pt · 92%
- Robervallead 18.7 pt · 97%
- Rosemontlead 10.4 pt · 86%
- Rousseaulead 8.7 pt · 82%
- Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscaminguelead 3.1 pt · 61%
- Saint-Françoislead 1.2 pt · 41%
- Saint-Hyacinthelead 13.9 pt · 92%
- Saint-Jeanlead 6.7 pt · 76%
- Saint-Jérômelead 6.4 pt · 74%
- Sanguinetlead 6.0 pt · 74%
- Taillonlead 15.0 pt · 94%
- Taschereaulead 7.2 pt · 77%
- Terrebonnelead 6.8 pt · 76%
- Trois-Rivièreslead 6.0 pt · 75%
- Verchèreslead 8.0 pt · 79%
Its close races 29
Races within 5 points between the top two, where the PQ leads or is within 5 points of the leader.
View riding details
Chapleau
Margin : 0.2 pt · PLQ leading
3 parties within 5 pointsPLQ24.8%
Win probability : 38%
PQ24.6%
Win probability : 29%
CAQ23.7%
Win probability : 31%
Vanier-Les Rivières
Margin : 0.2 pt · PCQ leading
PCQ28.1%
Win probability : 45%
PQ27.9%
Win probability : 43%
Groulx
Margin : 0.2 pt · CAQ leading
CAQ29.7%
Win probability : 49%
PQ29.5%
Win probability : 49%
Maurice-Richard
Margin : 0.6 pt · PQ leading
3 parties within 5 pointsPQ28.7%
Win probability : 40%
PLQ28.1%
Win probability : 38%
QS25.1%
Win probability : 21%
La Prairie
Margin : 0.7 pt · PQ leading
3 parties within 5 pointsPQ26.6%
Win probability : 34%
CAQ25.9%
Win probability : 33%
PLQ25.7%
Win probability : 32%
Other parties: Quebec Liberal Party · Coalition Avenir Québec · Conservative Party of Quebec · Québec solidaire
127QC is an independent project, with no ties to any political party. The link to the party’s website is provided for information. 2022 results: Élections Québec (125-riding map).