RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Prévost
127QC projection for Prévost as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 38.6% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (18.9%) and the PCQ (18.1%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 98% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin19.7 points
Win probability98%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Anne Nguyen
38.6%Win: 98%CAQ Sonia Bélanger incumbent
18.9%Win: 2%PCQ Joyce Sauriol
18.1%Win: < 1%PLQ Paul Landry
13.6%Win: < 1%QS Alix Gravel
10.3%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 19.6 | 38.6 | +19.0 |
| CAQ | 46.2 | 18.9 | −27.3 |
| PCQ | 11.7 | 18.1 | +6.4 |
| PLQ | 6.0 | 13.6 | +7.6 |
| QS | 15.1 | 10.3 | −4.8 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- ArgenteuilPQ 10.1-pt margin
- BellefeuillePQ 8.2-pt margin
- BertrandPQ 21.9-pt margin
- Les PlainesPQ 3.0-pt margin
- RousseauPQ 8.6-pt margin
- Saint-JérômePQ 6.4-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.