127QCELECTION OBSERVATORY

THE NARROWEST LEADS

Races to watch

Ridings where fewer than 5 points separate the top two parties: estimated support and win probabilities.

Projection of October 1, 2026

12races under 2 points
29races under 5 points
5races with 3+ contenders

The filter includes parties within 5 points of the leader, including those in second or third place. Categories use unrounded margins.

29 ridings

Very close races12

Fewer than 2 points between the top two.

Chapleau

Margin : 0.4 pt · PLQ leading

3 parties within 5 points
PLQ24.9%

Win probability : 38%

PQ24.5%

Win probability : 28%

CAQ23.7%

Win probability : 31%

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Maurice-Richard

Margin : 0.6 pt · PQ leading

3 parties within 5 points
PQ28.7%

Win probability : 40%

PLQ28.1%

Win probability : 38%

QS25.1%

Win probability : 21%

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La Prairie

Margin : 0.7 pt · PQ leading

3 parties within 5 points
PQ26.6%

Win probability : 34%

CAQ25.9%

Win probability : 33%

PLQ25.7%

Win probability : 32%

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Vachon

Margin : 0.9 pt · CAQ leading

3 parties within 5 points
CAQ27.1%

Win probability : 40%

PQ26.3%

Win probability : 27%

PLQ26.0%

Win probability : 33%

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Close races17

From 2 to under 5 points between the top two.

A narrow lead is not a guaranteed win. Probabilities are the share of simulations won and depend on the model’s assumptions. Read the method.