RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
BlainvilleClose race
127QC projection for Blainville as of October 1, 2026: the CAQ leads with 30.9% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (29.5%) and the PLQ (19.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the CAQ wins 54% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.
Candidates and estimated support
The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAQ | 49.4 | 30.9 | −18.6 |
| PQ | 15.4 | 29.5 | +14.0 |
| PLQ | 11.0 | 19.5 | +8.5 |
| PCQ | 9.8 | 10.8 | +1.0 |
| QS | 14.0 | 9.2 | −4.8 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- GroulxCAQ 0.2-pt margin
- Les PlainesPQ 3.0-pt margin
- TerrebonnePQ 6.8-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.