RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
GroulxClose race
127QC projection for Groulx as of October 1, 2026: the CAQ leads with 29.7% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (29.5%) and the PLQ (19.7%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the CAQ wins 49% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.
Candidates and estimated support
The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAQ | 47.7 | 29.7 | −18.0 |
| PQ | 15.3 | 29.5 | +14.2 |
| PLQ | 11.0 | 19.7 | +8.6 |
| QS | 16.2 | 11.1 | −5.1 |
| PCQ | 8.7 | 9.8 | +1.1 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- BlainvilleCAQ 1.4-pt margin
- Deux-MontagnesPQ 6.5-pt margin
- MirabelPQ 3.1-pt margin
- Sainte-RosePLQ 11.0-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.