RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Sainte-Rose
127QC projection for Sainte-Rose as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 35.0% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (24.0%) and the CAQ (21.4%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins 85% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin11.0 points
Win probability85%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Cécile Tremblay
35.0%Win: 85%PQ Judith Cardin
24.0%Win: 7%CAQ Christopher Skeete incumbent
21.4%Win: 8%PCQ Alexandre Arrata
9.9%Win: < 1%QS Karine Cliche
9.1%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 24.0 | 35.0 | +11.0 |
| PQ | 12.4 | 24.0 | +11.7 |
| CAQ | 38.5 | 21.4 | −17.1 |
| PCQ | 9.4 | 9.9 | +0.5 |
| QS | 14.3 | 9.1 | −5.3 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- GroulxCAQ 0.2-pt margin
- Vimont-AuteuilPLQ 20.1-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.