RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Vimont-Auteuil
127QC projection for Vimont-Auteuil as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 41.3% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (21.1%) and the CAQ (17.8%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins 96% of the time.
LeadingPLQ
Margin20.1 points
Win probability96%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PLQ Louis Ialenti
41.3%Win: 96%PQ Amin Ouazragh-Marchand
21.1%Win: 1%CAQ Valérie Schmaltz incumbent
17.8%Win: 3%PCQ Mackenley Raphael
12.9%Win: < 1%QS Stella Bourgon-Germain
6.6%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLQ | 29.8 | 41.3 | +11.4 |
| PQ | 10.6 | 21.1 | +10.6 |
| CAQ | 34.3 | 17.8 | −16.5 |
| PCQ | 12.9 | 12.9 | 0.0 |
| QS | 11.5 | 6.6 | −4.8 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Mille-ÎlesPLQ 20.3-pt margin
- Sainte-RosePLQ 11.0-pt margin
- TerrebonnePQ 6.8-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.