RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Mille-Îles

127QC projection for Mille-Îles as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 44.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (23.9%) and the CAQ (13.3%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins 97% of the time.

LeadingPLQ

Margin20.3 points

Win probability97%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PLQ Virginie Dufour incumbent

44.2%Win: 97%

PQ Mathieu Trottier-Kavanagh

23.9%Win: 2%

CAQ Sonia Amedome

13.3%Win: 1%

PCQ Nare Stepanyan

10.5%Win: < 1%

QS Zachary Robert

7.8%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PLQ	31.7	44.2	+12.5
PQ	12.3	23.9	+11.5
CAQ	32.0	13.3	−18.7
PCQ	10.1	10.5	+0.4
QS	12.8	7.8	−5.0

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

LaFontainePLQ 51.8-pt margin
Laval-des-RapidesPLQ 16.4-pt margin
TerrebonnePQ 6.8-pt margin
Vimont-AuteuilPLQ 20.1-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.