RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Laval-des-Rapides

127QC projection for Laval-des-Rapides as of October 1, 2026: the PLQ leads with 41.1% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (24.6%) and the CAQ (13.8%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PLQ wins 94% of the time.

LeadingPLQ

Margin16.4 points

Win probability94%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PLQ Caroline De Guire

41.1%Win: 94%

PQ Fatima Aboubakr

24.6%Win: 4%

CAQ Vincent Bolduc

13.8%Win: 1%

QS Sabrina Di Matteo

10.5%Win: < 1%

PCQ Ronny Niro

9.5%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PLQ	28.7	41.1	+12.4
PQ	12.7	24.6	+12.0
CAQ	32.5	13.8	−18.6
QS	16.1	10.5	−5.6
PCQ	8.9	9.5	+0.6

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

AcadiePLQ 35.7-pt margin
ChomedeyPLQ 28.9-pt margin
Mille-ÎlesPLQ 20.3-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.