RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Terrebonne

127QC projection for Terrebonne as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 35.7% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (29.0%) and the PLQ (17.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 76% of the time.

LeadingPQ

Margin6.8 points

Win probability76%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Catherine Gentilcore incumbent

35.7%Win: 76%

CAQ Valérie Doyon

29.0%Win: 24%

PLQ Ange Claude Bigilimana

17.9%Win: < 1%

PCQ Marianne Poirier

8.8%Win: < 1%

QS Ariane Drainville

8.4%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	19.1	35.7	+16.6
CAQ	50.4	29.0	−21.4
PLQ	9.4	17.9	+8.5
PCQ	7.5	8.8	+1.3
QS	12.7	8.4	−4.3

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

BlainvilleCAQ 1.4-pt margin
Les PlainesPQ 3.0-pt margin
MassonPQ 4.7-pt margin
Mille-ÎlesPLQ 20.3-pt margin
Vimont-AuteuilPLQ 20.1-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.