RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Les PlainesClose race

127QC projection for Les Plaines as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 32.1% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (29.2%) and the PLQ (15.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 62% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.

LeadingPQ

Margin3.0 points

Win probability62%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Dieudonné Ella Oyono

32.1%Win: 62%

CAQ Fatou Diop

29.2%Win: 38%

PLQ Agathe Owona

15.9%Win: < 1%

PCQ Habib Diarra

13.6%Win: < 1%

QS Irène Dubé

8.9%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	16.3	32.1	+15.9
CAQ	50.0	29.2	−20.8
PLQ	7.8	15.9	+8.1
PCQ	11.9	13.6	+1.7
QS	13.1	8.9	−4.2

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

BlainvilleCAQ 1.4-pt margin
MassonPQ 4.7-pt margin
PrévostPQ 19.7-pt margin
RousseauPQ 8.6-pt margin
Saint-JérômePQ 6.4-pt margin
TerrebonnePQ 6.8-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.