RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Saint-Jérôme

127QC projection for Saint-Jérôme as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 36.0% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (29.5%) and the PCQ (11.6%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 74% of the time.

LeadingPQ

Margin6.4 points

Win probability74%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Sandrine Michon

36.0%Win: 74%

CAQ Carla Pierre-Paul

29.5%Win: 26%

PCQ Myriam Laroche

11.6%Win: < 1%

QS Orphée Dubé-Gervais

11.2%Win: < 1%

PLQ Suzanne Pomerleau

11.2%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	18.6	36.0	+17.4
CAQ	50.2	29.5	−20.7
PCQ	9.9	11.6	+1.7
QS	15.7	11.2	−4.5
PLQ	4.3	11.2	+6.8

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

BellefeuillePQ 8.2-pt margin
Les PlainesPQ 3.0-pt margin
PrévostPQ 19.7-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.