RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Rousseau
127QC projection for Rousseau as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 35.3% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (26.6%) and the PCQ (19.4%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 82% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin8.6 points
Win probability82%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Mathieu Lebrun
35.3%Win: 82%CAQ Louis-Charles Thouin incumbent
26.6%Win: 17%PCQ Marie-Ève Boucher
19.4%Win: 1%PLQ Sashmir Sidney
9.9%Win: < 1%QS Hind Rihani
8.8%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 17.9 | 35.3 | +17.4 |
| CAQ | 50.6 | 26.6 | −23.9 |
| PCQ | 15.0 | 19.4 | +4.4 |
| PLQ | 3.5 | 9.9 | +6.4 |
| QS | 13.1 | 8.8 | −4.4 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- BertrandPQ 21.9-pt margin
- JoliettePQ 38.8-pt margin
- L'AssomptionPQ 2.1-pt margin
- Les PlainesPQ 3.0-pt margin
- MassonPQ 4.7-pt margin
- PrévostPQ 19.7-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.