RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
L'AssomptionClose race
127QC projection for L'Assomption as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 33.7% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (31.6%) and the PLQ (13.0%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 59% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.
Candidates and estimated support
The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 15.2 | 33.7 | +18.5 |
| CAQ | 57.2 | 31.6 | −25.6 |
| PLQ | 4.9 | 13.0 | +8.1 |
| QS | 14.4 | 11.0 | −3.4 |
| PCQ | 8.1 | 10.7 | +2.6 |
Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.