RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Richelieu

127QC projection for Richelieu as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 41.5% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (25.3%) and the PCQ (14.9%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 94% of the time.

LeadingPQ

Margin16.2 points

Win probability94%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Jocelyn Desjardins

41.5%Win: 94%

CAQ Jean-Bernard Émond incumbent

25.3%Win: 6%

PCQ Christian Blouin

14.9%Win: < 1%

PLQ Gilles Delorme

11.5%Win: < 1%

QS Julien Bergeron

6.6%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	20.6	41.5	+20.9
CAQ	55.2	25.3	−29.9
PCQ	8.7	14.9	+6.2
PLQ	4.3	11.5	+7.2
QS	10.4	6.6	−3.8

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

BerthierPQ 22.5-pt margin
BorduasPQ 6.0-pt margin
L'AssomptionPQ 2.1-pt margin
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-LajoiePQ 8.9-pt margin
Nicolet-BécancourPQ 1.5-pt margin
Saint-HyacinthePQ 13.8-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.