RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie

127QC projection for Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 33.4% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PCQ (24.5%) and the CAQ (21.2%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 83% of the time.

LeadingPQ

Margin8.9 points

Win probability83%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Natalie Bisaillon

33.4%Win: 83%

PCQ Laura Tremblay

24.5%Win: 10%

CAQ Patrick Saindon

21.2%Win: 7%

PLQ Alexandra Houle

10.9%Win: < 1%

QS Sébastien Bage

9.9%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	14.6	33.4	+18.8
PCQ	15.6	24.5	+8.9
CAQ	51.8	21.2	−30.6
PLQ	3.6	10.9	+7.3
QS	13.8	9.9	−3.9

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

Daniel-JohnsonPQ 12.7-pt margin
Drummond–Bois-FrancsPQ 5.9-pt margin
Nicolet-BécancourPQ 1.5-pt margin
RichelieuPQ 16.2-pt margin
RichmondPQ 8.5-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.