RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Richmond

127QC projection for Richmond as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 30.1% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PCQ (21.6%) and the CAQ (17.7%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 83% of the time.

LeadingPQ

Margin8.5 points

Win probability83%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Bernard Sévigny

30.1%Win: 83%

PCQ Dominic Bouffard

21.6%Win: 7%

CAQ Guillaume Rousseau

17.7%Win: 8%

QS David Poulin-Latulippe

16.8%Win: 2%

PLQ Hugo Fontaine

13.6%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	12.6	30.1	+17.5
PCQ	13.4	21.6	+8.2
CAQ	46.4	17.7	−28.7
QS	21.7	16.8	−4.9
PLQ	5.4	13.6	+8.2

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

Daniel-JohnsonPQ 12.7-pt margin
Drummond–Bois-FrancsPQ 5.9-pt margin
Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-LajoiePQ 8.9-pt margin
MéganticPCQ 2.1-pt margin
OrfordPQ 2.9-pt margin
Saint-FrançoisPQ 1.2-pt margin
SherbrookeQS 9.1-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.