RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

MéganticClose race

127QC projection for Mégantic as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 30.7% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (28.6%) and the CAQ (19.2%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins 59% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.

LeadingPCQ

Margin2.1 points

Win probability59%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PCQ Jimmy Gagnon

30.7%Win: 59%

PQ Debbie Fennety

28.6%Win: 35%

CAQ Francois Jacques incumbent

19.2%Win: 6%

PLQ Sylvain Houle

12.7%Win: < 1%

QS Marilyn Ouellet

8.6%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PCQ	22.0	30.7	+8.8
PQ	12.8	28.6	+15.8
CAQ	46.5	19.2	−27.3
PLQ	5.4	12.7	+7.4
QS	13.0	8.6	−4.4

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

Beauce-SudPCQ 38.4-pt margin
Drummond–Bois-FrancsPQ 5.9-pt margin
Lotbinière-FrontenacPCQ 21.0-pt margin
RichmondPQ 8.5-pt margin
Saint-FrançoisPQ 1.2-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.