RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Saint-FrançoisClose race
127QC projection for Saint-François as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 23.6% of the estimated vote, ahead of Québec solidaire (22.4%) and the PCQ (18.2%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 40% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.
Candidates and estimated support
The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 8.8 | 23.6 | +14.8 |
| QS | 28.4 | 22.4 | −6.0 |
| PCQ | 11.0 | 18.2 | +7.2 |
| PLQ | 8.4 | 17.9 | +9.4 |
| CAQ | 42.0 | 17.3 | −24.7 |
Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- MéganticPCQ 2.1-pt margin
- OrfordPQ 2.9-pt margin
- RichmondPQ 8.5-pt margin
- SherbrookeQS 9.1-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.