RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Sherbrooke
127QC projection for Sherbrooke as of October 1, 2026: Québec solidaire leads with 34.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (25.1%) and the PLQ (14.7%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, Québec solidaire wins 79% of the time.
LeadingQS
Margin9.1 points
Win probability79%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
QS Stéphanie Vachon
34.2%Win: 79%PQ Gabriel Pallotta
25.1%Win: 20%PLQ Pierre Cossette
14.7%Win: < 1%PCQ Jonathan Brault
13.3%Win: < 1%CAQ Fadéla Hamou
12.2%Win: 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| QS | 41.9 | 34.2 | −7.7 |
| PQ | 9.1 | 25.1 | +16.0 |
| PLQ | 5.8 | 14.7 | +8.9 |
| PCQ | 6.7 | 13.3 | +6.5 |
| CAQ | 35.2 | 12.2 | −23.0 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- OrfordPQ 2.9-pt margin
- RichmondPQ 8.5-pt margin
- Saint-FrançoisPQ 1.2-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.