RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

OrfordClose race

127QC projection for Orford as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 29.7% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PLQ (26.8%) and the PCQ (17.2%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 60% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.

LeadingPQ

Margin2.9 points

Win probability60%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Jocelyn Caron

29.7%Win: 60%

PLQ Charles Milliard

26.8%Win: 36%

PCQ Benoit Robitaille

17.2%Win: 1%

CAQ Allison Turner

14.4%Win: 3%

QS Eve-Lyne Clusiault

11.3%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	13.4	29.7	+16.3
PLQ	15.4	26.8	+11.4
PCQ	10.8	17.2	+6.4
CAQ	42.8	14.4	−28.4
QS	16.2	11.3	−4.9

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

Brome-MissisquoiPQ 3.1-pt margin
Daniel-JohnsonPQ 12.7-pt margin
RichmondPQ 8.5-pt margin
Saint-FrançoisPQ 1.2-pt margin
SherbrookeQS 9.1-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.