RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Lotbinière-Frontenac
127QC projection for Lotbinière-Frontenac as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 43.3% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (22.3%) and the CAQ (15.2%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins 98% of the time.
LeadingPCQ
Margin21.0 points
Win probability98%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PCQ Renaud Labrecque
43.3%Win: 98%PQ Jonathan Moreau
22.3%Win: 1%CAQ Roch Gamache
15.2%Win: < 1%PLQ Ludovic Beauregard
13.6%Win: < 1%QS Elisabeth St-Aubin
5.6%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 32.2 | 43.3 | +11.1 |
| PQ | 8.8 | 22.3 | +13.5 |
| CAQ | 43.7 | 15.2 | −28.5 |
| PLQ | 5.9 | 13.6 | +7.7 |
| QS | 9.4 | 5.6 | −3.8 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Arthabaska-L’ÉrablePCQ 9.8-pt margin
- Beauce-NordPCQ 38.1-pt margin
- Beauce-SudPCQ 38.4-pt margin
- Chutes-de-la-ChaudièrePCQ 13.0-pt margin
- Drummond–Bois-FrancsPQ 5.9-pt margin
- MéganticPCQ 2.1-pt margin
- Nicolet-BécancourPQ 1.5-pt margin
- PortneufPCQ 18.2-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.