RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière
127QC projection for Chutes-de-la-Chaudière as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 36.5% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (23.6%) and the CAQ (22.1%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins 90% of the time.
LeadingPCQ
Margin13.0 points
Win probability90%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PCQ Dominique Dumas
36.5%Win: 90%PQ Serge Bonin
23.6%Win: 4%CAQ Martine Biron incumbent
22.1%Win: 6%PLQ Stéphane Clavet
12.3%Win: < 1%QS Jean-Benoît Ouellet
5.4%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 27.2 | 36.5 | +9.3 |
| PQ | 11.1 | 23.6 | +12.4 |
| CAQ | 47.5 | 22.1 | −25.3 |
| PLQ | 4.9 | 12.3 | +7.4 |
| QS | 9.3 | 5.4 | −3.8 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Beauce-NordPCQ 38.1-pt margin
- BellechassePCQ 24.4-pt margin
- LévisPCQ 2.7-pt margin
- Lotbinière-FrontenacPCQ 21.0-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.