RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Bellechasse
127QC projection for Bellechasse as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 45.8% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (21.4%) and the CAQ (19.1%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins 99% of the time.
LeadingPCQ
Margin24.4 points
Win probability99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PCQ Éric Duhaime
45.8%Win: 99%PQ Jérôme Couture
21.4%Win: < 1%CAQ Stéphanie Lachance incumbent
19.1%Win: 1%PLQ Richard Garon
10.9%Win: < 1%QS Raphaël Bédard
2.8%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 35.3 | 45.8 | +10.6 |
| PQ | 8.8 | 21.4 | +12.6 |
| CAQ | 45.7 | 19.1 | −26.7 |
| PLQ | 4.1 | 10.9 | +6.8 |
| QS | 6.0 | 2.8 | −3.3 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Beauce-NordPCQ 38.1-pt margin
- Beauce-SudPCQ 38.4-pt margin
- Charlevoix–Côte-de-BeaupréPQ 6.9-pt margin
- Chutes-de-la-ChaudièrePCQ 13.0-pt margin
- Côte-du-SudPCQ 3.9-pt margin
- LévisPCQ 2.7-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.