RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré
127QC projection for Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 32.8% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PCQ (25.9%) and the CAQ (21.1%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 79% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin6.9 points
Win probability79%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ François Gariépy
32.8%Win: 79%PCQ Caroline Simard
25.9%Win: 14%CAQ Kariane Bourassa incumbent
21.1%Win: 8%PLQ Michel Bureau
11.9%Win: < 1%QS Dulce Vivar
8.2%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 16.2 | 32.8 | +16.6 |
| PCQ | 18.1 | 25.9 | +7.8 |
| CAQ | 48.2 | 21.1 | −27.1 |
| PLQ | 4.7 | 11.9 | +7.2 |
| QS | 12.5 | 8.2 | −4.3 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- BellechassePCQ 24.4-pt margin
- ChauveauPCQ 17.4-pt margin
- Côte-du-SudPCQ 3.9-pt margin
- DubucPQ 13.5-pt margin
- Lac-Saint-JeanPQ 28.5-pt margin
- LévisPCQ 2.7-pt margin
- MontmorencyPCQ 11.4-pt margin
- René-LévesquePQ 14.9-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.