RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Chauveau
127QC projection for Chauveau as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 39.0% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (21.6%) and the PQ (21.1%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins 95% of the time.
LeadingPCQ
Margin17.4 points
Win probability95%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PCQ Karim Elayoubi
39.0%Win: 95%CAQ Christian Lachance
21.6%Win: 4%PQ Mathieu Foltz
21.1%Win: 1%PLQ John McGrath
12.1%Win: < 1%QS Émilie Couture
5.8%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 31.8 | 39.0 | +7.2 |
| CAQ | 46.8 | 21.6 | −25.2 |
| PQ | 7.6 | 21.1 | +13.4 |
| PLQ | 3.8 | 12.1 | +8.3 |
| QS | 8.8 | 5.8 | −3.0 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- CharlesbourgPCQ 0.3-pt margin
- Charlevoix–Côte-de-BeaupréPQ 6.9-pt margin
- La PeltriePCQ 16.0-pt margin
- Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ 9.5-pt margin
- MontmorencyPCQ 11.4-pt margin
- PortneufPCQ 18.2-pt margin
- Vanier-Les RivièresPCQ 0.4-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.