RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Montmorency
127QC projection for Montmorency as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 35.4% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (23.9%) and the CAQ (20.7%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins 89% of the time.
LeadingPCQ
Margin11.4 points
Win probability89%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PCQ Marie-Josée Hélie
35.4%Win: 89%PQ Nathalie Gagnon
23.9%Win: 6%CAQ Jean-François Simard incumbent
20.7%Win: 5%PLQ René-Paul Coly
12.0%Win: < 1%QS Annie-Pierre Bélanger
7.8%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 26.1 | 35.4 | +9.3 |
| PQ | 11.3 | 23.9 | +12.7 |
| CAQ | 45.2 | 20.7 | −24.4 |
| PLQ | 4.7 | 12.0 | +7.3 |
| QS | 12.0 | 7.8 | −4.3 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Charlevoix–Côte-de-BeaupréPQ 6.9-pt margin
- ChauveauPCQ 17.4-pt margin
- Jean-LesageQS 7.4-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.