RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Jean-Lesage
127QC projection for Jean-Lesage as of October 1, 2026: Québec solidaire leads with 31.6% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (24.2%) and the PCQ (21.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, Québec solidaire wins 72% of the time.
LeadingQS
Margin7.4 points
Win probability72%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
QS Sol Zanetti incumbent
31.6%Win: 72%PQ Claude Villeneuve
24.2%Win: 19%PCQ Nancy Joannette
21.5%Win: 8%PLQ Gertrude Bourdon
11.8%Win: < 1%CAQ Nathalie St-Pierre
10.4%Win: 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| QS | 37.8 | 31.6 | −6.2 |
| PQ | 11.1 | 24.2 | +13.1 |
| PCQ | 14.1 | 21.5 | +7.4 |
| PLQ | 4.4 | 11.8 | +7.4 |
| CAQ | 31.3 | 10.4 | −20.8 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- CharlesbourgPCQ 0.3-pt margin
- MontmorencyPCQ 11.4-pt margin
- TaschereauPQ 7.1-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.