RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

CharlesbourgClose race

127QC projection for Charlesbourg as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 29.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (28.9%) and the CAQ (18.3%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins 49% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.

LeadingPCQ

Margin0.3 points

Win probability49%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PCQ Éloïse Coulombe

29.2%Win: 49%

PQ Gabriel Coulombe

28.9%Win: 46%

CAQ Marie-Josée Morency

18.3%Win: 4%

PLQ Seynabou Top

14.2%Win: < 1%

QS Georges Goma

8.8%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PCQ	20.4	29.2	+8.8
PQ	14.2	28.9	+14.7
CAQ	45.0	18.3	−26.7
PLQ	6.0	14.2	+8.2
QS	13.0	8.8	−4.2

Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

ChauveauPCQ 17.4-pt margin
Jean-LesageQS 7.4-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.