RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Taschereau
127QC projection for Taschereau as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 38.0% of the estimated vote, ahead of Québec solidaire (30.9%) and the PCQ (13.8%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 77% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin7.1 points
Win probability77%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Christian Savard
38.0%Win: 77%QS Étienne Grandmont incumbent
30.9%Win: 23%PCQ Eliot Estévez-Verville
13.8%Win: < 1%PLQ Farnell Morisset
13.0%Win: < 1%CAQ Brigitte Martin
3.7%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 22.6 | 38.0 | +15.5 |
| QS | 39.5 | 30.9 | −8.6 |
| PCQ | 8.8 | 13.8 | +5.1 |
| PLQ | 5.9 | 13.0 | +7.1 |
| CAQ | 21.9 | 3.7 | −18.2 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Jean-LesageQS 7.4-pt margin
- Jean-TalonPQ 10.0-pt margin
- LévisPCQ 2.7-pt margin
- Vanier-Les RivièresPCQ 0.4-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.