RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

LévisClose race

127QC projection for Lévis as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 29.4% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (26.7%) and the CAQ (23.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins 55% of the time. It is a close race: fewer than 3 points separate the top two parties.

LeadingPCQ

Margin2.7 points

Win probability55%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PCQ Karine Laflamme

29.4%Win: 55%

PQ Yanick Godbout

26.7%Win: 27%

CAQ Bernard Drainville incumbent

23.5%Win: 18%

PLQ Brittany Blais

12.8%Win: < 1%

QS Simon Beauchamp-Léveillé

7.4%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PCQ	20.8	29.4	+8.6
PQ	12.9	26.7	+13.8
CAQ	48.8	23.5	−25.3
PLQ	5.1	12.8	+7.7
QS	11.5	7.4	−4.1

Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

BellechassePCQ 24.4-pt margin
Charlevoix–Côte-de-BeaupréPQ 6.9-pt margin
Chutes-de-la-ChaudièrePCQ 13.0-pt margin
Jean-TalonPQ 10.0-pt margin
TaschereauPQ 7.1-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.