RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Jean-Talon
127QC projection for Jean-Talon as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 33.6% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PLQ (23.6%) and Québec solidaire (17.0%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 89% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin10.0 points
Win probability89%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Pascal Paradis incumbent
33.6%Win: 89%PLQ Julie White
23.6%Win: 9%QS Sonia Tchuembou
17.0%Win: 1%PCQ Jesse Robitaille
16.0%Win: < 1%CAQ William Denis
9.3%Win: 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 18.7 | 33.6 | +14.9 |
| PLQ | 13.5 | 23.6 | +10.1 |
| QS | 23.8 | 17.0 | −6.7 |
| PCQ | 10.4 | 16.0 | +5.7 |
| CAQ | 32.5 | 9.3 | −23.2 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- LévisPCQ 2.7-pt margin
- Louis-HébertPQ 10.2-pt margin
- TaschereauPQ 7.1-pt margin
- Vanier-Les RivièresPCQ 0.4-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.