RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Louis-Hébert
127QC projection for Louis-Hébert as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 32.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PCQ (22.0%) and the CAQ (19.7%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 87% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin10.2 points
Win probability87%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Chloé Fauchon
32.2%Win: 87%PCQ Marcos Archambault
22.0%Win: 4%CAQ Marc-Antoine Bernier
19.7%Win: 8%PLQ Richard Bélanger
18.0%Win: 1%QS Anne-Sophie Roy
7.9%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 16.5 | 32.2 | +15.7 |
| PCQ | 14.6 | 22.0 | +7.4 |
| CAQ | 47.2 | 19.7 | −27.5 |
| PLQ | 8.7 | 18.0 | +9.3 |
| QS | 12.0 | 7.9 | −4.1 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Jean-TalonPQ 10.0-pt margin
- La PeltriePCQ 16.0-pt margin
- PortneufPCQ 18.2-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.