RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Portneuf

127QC projection for Portneuf as of October 1, 2026: the PCQ leads with 41.5% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PQ (23.3%) and the CAQ (20.0%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PCQ wins 96% of the time.

LeadingPCQ

Margin18.2 points

Win probability96%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PCQ Marcel Bouchard

41.5%Win: 96%

PQ Raymond Francoeur

23.3%Win: 2%

CAQ Vincent Caron incumbent

20.0%Win: 2%

PLQ Jeremy Ouellet-Rousseau

9.6%Win: < 1%

QS Anne-Marie Melançon

4.6%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PCQ	30.6	41.5	+10.9
PQ	9.6	23.3	+13.8
CAQ	46.7	20.0	−26.7
PLQ	3.1	9.6	+6.6
QS	8.1	4.6	−3.5

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

ChamplainPQ 2.2-pt margin
ChauveauPCQ 17.4-pt margin
La PeltriePCQ 16.0-pt margin
Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ 9.5-pt margin
Lotbinière-FrontenacPCQ 21.0-pt margin
Louis-HébertPQ 10.2-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.