RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice
127QC projection for Laviolette–Saint-Maurice as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 34.9% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PCQ (25.4%) and the CAQ (20.7%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 88% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin9.5 points
Win probability88%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Élodie Murphy-Gauthier
34.9%Win: 88%PCQ Charles Paquin
25.4%Win: 7%CAQ Guy Veillette
20.7%Win: 5%PLQ Laurent Bélisle
12.8%Win: < 1%QS Rébéka Frédette
6.0%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 16.0 | 34.9 | +18.9 |
| PCQ | 16.7 | 25.4 | +8.6 |
| CAQ | 51.7 | 20.7 | −31.1 |
| PLQ | 5.0 | 12.8 | +7.8 |
| QS | 9.5 | 6.0 | −3.5 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.