RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Roberval
127QC projection for Roberval as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 42.1% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (23.5%) and the PCQ (18.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 97% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin18.6 points
Win probability97%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Isabelle Thibeault
42.1%Win: 97%CAQ Yanick Baillargeon
23.5%Win: 3%PCQ Pierre Gagné
18.5%Win: < 1%PLQ Serge Bergeron
12.1%Win: < 1%QS Guillaume David
3.6%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 20.5 | 42.1 | +21.5 |
| CAQ | 56.2 | 23.5 | −32.7 |
| PCQ | 11.4 | 18.5 | +7.2 |
| PLQ | 4.6 | 12.1 | +7.6 |
| QS | 6.8 | 3.6 | −3.2 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Lac-Saint-JeanPQ 28.5-pt margin
- Laviolette–Saint-MauricePQ 9.5-pt margin
- UngavaPLQ 2.3-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.