RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Lac-Saint-Jean
127QC projection for Lac-Saint-Jean as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 48.3% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (19.8%) and the PCQ (18.0%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 99% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin28.5 points
Win probability99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ William Fradette
48.3%Win: 99%CAQ François Cormier
19.8%Win: 1%PCQ Tommy Gauthier
18.0%Win: < 1%PLQ Anne Pâquet
9.6%Win: < 1%QS Antoine Bessette
4.1%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 25.6 | 48.3 | +22.7 |
| CAQ | 51.5 | 19.8 | −31.7 |
| PCQ | 11.4 | 18.0 | +6.6 |
| PLQ | 3.0 | 9.6 | +6.6 |
| QS | 7.6 | 4.1 | −3.5 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- Charlevoix–Côte-de-BeaupréPQ 6.9-pt margin
- DubucPQ 13.5-pt margin
- JonquièrePQ 11.9-pt margin
- RobervalPQ 18.6-pt margin
- UngavaPLQ 2.3-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.