RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Dubuc

127QC projection for Dubuc as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 38.9% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (25.4%) and the PCQ (18.8%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 91% of the time.

LeadingPQ

Margin13.5 points

Win probability91%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Émile Simard

38.9%Win: 91%

CAQ Marc Grandbois

25.4%Win: 8%

PCQ Catherine Morissette

18.8%Win: < 1%

PLQ Virginie Bouchard

9.4%Win: < 1%

QS Ève Laguë

7.2%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	17.5	38.9	+21.4
CAQ	57.6	25.4	−32.2
PCQ	11.0	18.8	+7.8
PLQ	2.5	9.4	+6.9
QS	10.6	7.2	−3.4

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

Charlevoix–Côte-de-BeaupréPQ 6.9-pt margin
ChicoutimiPQ 5.3-pt margin
DuplessisPQ 22.4-pt margin
JonquièrePQ 11.9-pt margin
Lac-Saint-JeanPQ 28.5-pt margin
René-LévesquePQ 14.9-pt margin
UngavaPLQ 2.3-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.