RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION

Chicoutimi

127QC projection for Chicoutimi as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 34.9% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (29.6%) and the PCQ (16.0%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 71% of the time.

LeadingPQ

Margin5.3 points

Win probability71%

Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.

Candidates and estimated support

PQ Marie-Karlynn Laflamme incumbent

34.9%Win: 71%

CAQ Sandra Larouche

29.6%Win: 29%

PCQ Gabriella-Myriam Mathieu

16.0%Win: < 1%

PLQ Jean-Marc Allard

10.6%Win: < 1%

QS Jeanne Palardy

8.9%Win: < 1%

The 2022 result

Party	2022	2026 projection	Change (points)
PQ	14.2	34.9	+20.7
CAQ	62.3	29.6	−32.7
PCQ	8.4	16.0	+7.6
PLQ	3.0	10.6	+7.5
QS	12.0	8.9	−3.1

Boundaries changed with the 2026 electoral map: the 2022 results are estimated on the new territory. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).

Neighbouring ridings

DubucPQ 13.5-pt margin
JonquièrePQ 11.9-pt margin

How to read these numbers

The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.

Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings

Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.