RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Jonquière
127QC projection for Jonquière as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 40.6% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (28.7%) and the PCQ (16.4%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 87% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin11.9 points
Win probability87%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Jimmy Bouchard
40.6%Win: 87%CAQ Yannick Gagnon incumbent
28.7%Win: 13%PCQ Yannick Pelletier
16.4%Win: < 1%PLQ Wilda Solon
8.6%Win: < 1%QS Serge Bergeron
5.7%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 19.3 | 40.6 | +21.3 |
| CAQ | 59.4 | 28.7 | −30.7 |
| PCQ | 9.6 | 16.4 | +6.8 |
| PLQ | 2.1 | 8.6 | +6.4 |
| QS | 9.1 | 5.7 | −3.4 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- ChicoutimiPQ 5.3-pt margin
- DubucPQ 13.5-pt margin
- Lac-Saint-JeanPQ 28.5-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.