RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Duplessis
127QC projection for Duplessis as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 44.4% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PCQ (22.1%) and the CAQ (17.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins 99% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin22.4 points
Win probability99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Meggie Richard
44.4%Win: 99%PCQ Roberto Stea
22.1%Win: < 1%CAQ Kateri Champagne Jourdain incumbent
17.5%Win: 1%PLQ Samuel Murray
10.5%Win: < 1%QS Jani Bellefleur-Kaltush
5.3%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 24.8 | 44.4 | +19.7 |
| PCQ | 15.7 | 22.1 | +6.4 |
| CAQ | 45.1 | 17.5 | −27.7 |
| PLQ | 4.0 | 10.5 | +6.5 |
| QS | 9.4 | 5.3 | −4.1 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- DubucPQ 13.5-pt margin
- GaspéPQ 44.1-pt margin
- Îles-de-la-MadeleinePQ 56.1-pt margin
- René-LévesquePQ 14.9-pt margin
- UngavaPLQ 2.3-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.