RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Gaspé
127QC projection for Gaspé as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 58.2% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (14.2%) and the PLQ (13.5%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin44.1 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Méganne Perry Mélançon
58.2%Win: > 99%CAQ Stéphane Sainte-Croix incumbent
14.2%Win: < 1%PLQ Michel Marin
13.5%Win: < 1%PCQ Christian Pierry
9.5%Win: < 1%QS Emmanuelle Babin
4.6%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 37.5 | 58.2 | +20.7 |
| CAQ | 41.4 | 14.2 | −27.2 |
| PLQ | 6.9 | 13.5 | +6.6 |
| PCQ | 5.2 | 9.5 | +4.3 |
| QS | 9.0 | 4.6 | −4.4 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- BonaventurePQ 34.1-pt margin
- DuplessisPQ 22.4-pt margin
- Matane-Matapédia-MitisPQ 72.3-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.