RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Bonaventure
127QC projection for Bonaventure as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 50.7% of the estimated vote, ahead of the CAQ (16.7%) and the PLQ (16.1%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin34.1 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Pier-Luc Bujold
50.7%Win: > 99%CAQ Catherine Blouin incumbent
16.7%Win: < 1%PLQ Christian Cyr
16.1%Win: < 1%PCQ Dominique Côté
10.1%Win: < 1%QS Yv Bonnier Viger
6.3%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 30.1 | 50.7 | +20.6 |
| CAQ | 44.5 | 16.7 | −27.8 |
| PLQ | 8.6 | 16.1 | +7.5 |
| PCQ | 5.5 | 10.1 | +4.6 |
| QS | 10.8 | 6.3 | −4.5 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- GaspéPQ 44.1-pt margin
- Matane-Matapédia-MitisPQ 72.3-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.