RIDING · OCTOBER 5, 2026 ELECTION
Matane-Matapédia-Mitis
127QC projection for Matane-Matapédia-Mitis as of October 1, 2026: the PQ leads with 82.3% of the estimated vote, ahead of the PCQ (10.0%) and the PLQ (6.4%). In the model’s 5,000 simulations, the PQ wins > 99% of the time.
LeadingPQ
Margin72.3 points
Win probability> 99%
Poll-based projection. It describes the race today; the October 5 result may differ.
Candidates and estimated support
PQ Pascal Bérubé incumbent
82.3%Win: > 99%PCQ Patrice Caron
10.0%Win: < 1%PLQ André Côté
6.4%Win: < 1%QS Gabriel Plante
1.1%Win: < 1%CAQ Henry Maclaren
0.1%Win: < 1%The 2022 result
| Party | 2022 | 2026 projection | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 67.4 | 82.3 | +14.9 |
| PCQ | 7.8 | 10.0 | +2.2 |
| PLQ | 2.1 | 6.4 | +4.3 |
| QS | 4.9 | 1.1 | −3.8 |
| CAQ | 17.4 | 0.1 | −17.2 |
Boundaries unchanged in 2026: official 2022 results. Sources: Élections Québec; transposition to the 2026 map by Kyle Hutton (Blunt Objects).
Neighbouring ridings
- BonaventurePQ 34.1-pt margin
- GaspéPQ 44.1-pt margin
- René-LévesquePQ 14.9-pt margin
- RimouskiPQ 36.4-pt margin
How to read these numbers
The estimated vote comes from the model’s central scenario. The probability is the share of the 5,000 simulations won by each party; it remains experimental and depends on the model’s assumptions.
Show on the interactive map · Read the method · All ridings
Projection of October 1, 2026 · polls as of October 1 · 5,000 simulations.